Paul's Props and Touchdowns: 2025 Week 9 | Fantasy Points
Paul Kelly analyzes Fantasy Points projections to identify significant discrepancies and select the best player prop and touchdown bets.
Player Props Records by Year
- 2021: 75-47 (61.5%)
- 2022: 85-68 (55.6%)
- 2023: 79-59 (57.2%)
- 2024: 70-50 (58.3%)
- 2025: 32-18 (64.0%, +10.21 units)
Weekly Betting Insights
Each week, Paul shares recommended player prop bets based on finding discrepancies and "anytime" touchdown scorer bets. Week 8 saw the first losing record for player props, but Week 9 aims to rebound.
Methodology for Finding Props
To gain an edge over sportsbooks, Paul started by manually comparing John Hansen’s player projections to book odds. His focus is on finding the largest gaps between Hansen’s numbers and the betting lines, pointing to smart bets.
"A handful of years ago, I started manually comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props offered by the books."
With advances in technology, Paul now uses a prop finder tool that automates the comparison process, allowing him to quickly spot the biggest discrepancies and select favorable odds from various sportsbooks.
Summary
Paul Kelly consistently leverages projection discrepancies to guide profitable player prop bets, using evolving tools to improve his edge in fantasy football wagering.
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